Publication Details

An assessment of uncertainty in forest carbon budget projections

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Year Published

2000

Publication

Environmental Science and Policy. 3: 73-82.

Abstract

Estimates of uncertainty are presented for projections of forest carbon inventory and average annual net carbon flux on private timberland in the US using the model FORCARB. Uncertainty in carbon inventory was approximately ±9% (2000 million metric tons) of the estimated median in the year 2000, rising to 11% (2800 million metric tons) in projection year 2040, with this range covering 95% of the distribution. Relative uncertainties about net flux were higher and more variable than relative uncertainty estimates of carbon inventory. Results indicated that relatively high correlations among projected carbon budgets for the regional forest types led to greater total uncertainty than under assumptions of independence among types, indicating that an accurate portrayal of correlations is important.

Keywords

forest carbon model; FORCARB; United States; uncertainty analysis; carbon sequestration

Citation

Heath, Linda S.; Smith, James E. 2000. An assessment of uncertainty in forest carbon budget projections. Environmental Science and Policy. 3: 73-82.

Last updated on: April 9, 2008