Potential effects of climate change on birds of the Northeast
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Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change. 13: 487-516.
We used three approaches to assess potential effects of climate change on birds of the Northeast. First, we created distribution and abundance models for common bird species using climate, elevation, and tree species variables and modeled how bird distributions might change as habitats shift. Second, we assessed potential effects on high-elevation birds, especially Bicknell's thrush (Catharus bicknelli), that may be particularly vulnerable to climate change, by using statistical associations between climate, spruce-fir forest vegetation and bird survey data. Last, we complemented these projections with an assessment of how habitat quality of a migratory songbird, the black-throated blue warbler (Dendroica caerulescens) might be affected by climate change. Large changes in bird communities of the Northeast are likely to result from climate change, and these changes will be most dramatic under a scenario of continued high emissions.
KeywordsBicknell's thrush; Catharus bicknelli; bird species modeling; climate change; black-throated blue warbler; Dendroica caerulescens; habitat; high elevation; Northeast; northern hardwoods; spruce-fir; random forests
Rodenhouse, N.L.; Matthews, S.N.; McFarland, K.P.; Lambert, J.D.; Iverson, L.R.; Prasad, A.; Stillett, T.S.; Holmes, R.T. 2008. Potential effects of climate change on birds of the Northeast. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change. 13: 487-516.