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4. Planning Informed by Alternative Future Watershed Ecosystem Services

Planning Informed by Alternative Future Watershed Ecosystem Services

Research Issue

Forests and water sustain life, jobs, and recreation in northeast Minnesota. The forests, rivers, and lakes of the area support not only the economy, but also sustain a meaningful way of life for residents and visitors alike. Managing the landscape to sustain these benefits far into the future is important for both land managers and local residents. To accomplish this requires consideration of critical uncertainties such as climate change impacts and the economic health of the region as a part of thoughtful planning. By tapping into the knowledge and expertise of diverse institutions and stakeholders and employing Strategic Foresight tools, researchers can develop plausible alternative future scenarios. Coupling these scenarios to landscape models of forest change can help guide immediate forest management decisions with the goal to reach a desirable future.

Our Research

Scientists from the USDA Forest Service Northern Research Station, University of Minnesota, and the Harvard Forest are involved in a research project focused on creating plausible scenarios or “storylines” about the future of forests and ecosystem services within a large watershed basin of northeast Minnesota, including Duluth MN and Superior WI. Scenario Planning is a core method in the field of Strategic Foresight. The Minnesota Forest Resources Council helped researchers network with a diverse group of individuals representing the institutions, stakeholder values, and expertise throughout this region, in order to initiate the engagement necessary for development of plausible alternative futures that reflect concerns and aspirations for the region.  

Expected Outcomes

Storyline scenarios developed through this research effort will inform forest landscape models, with future outcomes evaluated in terms of the magnitude and spatial distribution of direct human uses of the landscape, and the ecosystem services (e.g., carbon storage, forest products, flood regulation, water quality, and habitat quality) those landscapes provide under each alternative scenario.  Alternative landscape scenario projections will be provided to the stakeholders and general public via a web-based visualization system.

Research Participants

Principal Investigators

• Brian Sturtevant, USDA Forest Service, Northern Research Station, Research Ecologist  
• Jonathan Thompson, Harvard University, Harvard Forest
• Joshua Plisinski, Harvard University, Harvard Forest
• Gordon Reese, USDA Forest Service, Northern Research Station, Research Ecologist
• Kathleen Quigley, USDA Forest Service, Northern Research Station, Research Ecologist
• Lynne Westphal, USDA Forest Service, Northern Research Station, Research Social Scientist
• David Bengston, USDA Forest Service, Northern Research Station, Research Forester
• Jason Crabtree, University of Minnesota, Department of Forest Resources
• Forrest D. Fleischman, University of Minnesota, Department of Forest Resources
• Diana Karwan, University of Minnesota, Department of Forest Resources
• Zac McEachran, University of Minnesota, Department of Forest Resources